Aha, but whether BD succeeds or not, the writing is on the wal for DVD’s. Revenue has declined precipitously, the demise was predicted as far back as 2006.

The revenue for DVD tells a clear story that its best days are behind it.

As for BD succeeding or not, compared against BD, LD market penetration is vastly deeper than LD. For example, here’s what was discussed on highdefdigest by grubert, an expert on such statistics, which I copied over for your reading.

Hardware penetration
LD: In 1994 (16 years since inception), 1.6% of US households had a LaserDisc player (link). : http://sec.edgar-online.com/1995/06/27/00/0000898430-95-001168/Section2.asp
BD: In 2008 (2 years since inception), 1.7% of US households have a standalone Blu-ray player, and that’s not counting PS3s (link). : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122402823905734467.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Software penetration
LD: In 1994, LaserDisc inception-to-date US software sales were 8.3 million (link) : http://sec.edgar-online.com/1995/06/27/00/0000898430-95-001168/Section2.asp
BD: By mid-2008, Blu-ray inception-to date US software sales were over 13 million: 5.7 million in 2006-2007 (link) : http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2008-01-07-dvd-sales-slippage_N.htm
and 7.37 million in Jan-Jun 2008 (link). : http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i5dab627a6e5e9f674598128170626f30

In any event, in spite of beating player penetration in 1/8 the time it took LD, in spite also beating the software sale penetration of LD in 1/8 the time, there is no guarantee that BD will succeed.

It could possibly fade away still. Highly unlikely given recent trends, but nothing in life is guaranteed. Heck, Neil Gaiman could suddenly decide to stop writing dark tales and write happy children stories, so nothing in life is certain.

Nevertheless, as a movie collector, I now have in my hands, movies that are a lot closer to the content that is shown in the best cinemas. In the case of animation, every frame of the latest releases are much closer to the animation cels that sell fo large amounts in stores.

When I sit down in my HT and put in Blu-ray movies of Godfather, Starship Troopers, Wall-e, 300, I am remeinded of an imax-like experience. It was never possible to do this with DVD.

That’s the only reason why I collect BD. But everyone has a reason to like or dislike any new introduction, and if the studios and ce companies did not have the motive to turn a profit, they will not be doing this.

Nevertheless, whether BD succeeds or not, DVD’s best days are gone. It is time.

“I didn’t even know such dedicated groups of Blu-Ray fans existed, let alone how to bait them or what would annoy them.”

You should have visited the Amazon message boards at the height HD-DVD/Blu-Ray format war. It was scary. :)

“Fewer than 2% of households have a Blu-Ray player? That’s reassuring. Now I know why I don’t know anyone with one. And it confirms my decision to focus on DVD coverage. :)”

In fairness, that is only standalone players, and ignores that sales of the PS3 which is around 3.9 million units sold in the U.S. alone. :)

Johana,

Everyone will move at the pace they’re comfortable with, all forms of entertainment are supposed to — (surprise!) entertain, not irritate us.

The earlier format war of hd dvd vs blu-ray was nasty, and it made caricatures of movie enthusiasts who were fighting this out in the enthusiast forums.

And, there’s lots of studies on the decline of DVD revenues. Some point to factors such as piracy, vod, others point to catalog exhaustion. The economy is unlikely the main factor as decline was in the horizon as early as 2005.

And product life cycles are an interesting template to explain what is happening to DVDs because there is a rich amount of historical data to apply here going as far back as the introduction of telephones and electricy.

Here’s one study that seeks to apply historical life cycles to the context of what is happening to DVDs now.
http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Coplan.pdf

The reason to DVD’s life cycle lies surprisingly in its rapid success. It took 6 yrs for it to get to 70% market penetration, and that is likely the start of the decline — historical data is telling us that roughly around 70%, a product enters the mature life cycle and decline wll follow — it has held true for CRTs, VCRs, CDs, and just about any piece of equipment tracked by historians.

And for the 1.7% of market penetration in two years that BD is now showing. Compared to every single historical device out there, the only one that is beating BD 2 yrs into its life is DVD. And DVD’s achieved 2.1% (!) market penetration 2yrs into its life cycle.

The bad news for BD as a product is also its good news — given the market share it had in 2008, it has beaten CD, VHS, colorTVs, even telephones in mkt share 2yrs in its life cycle.

The bad news for it is that other than DVDs, its product life cycle is also likely to reach maturity faster than any of these other devices, and for BD players at least, the commodity=maturity phase of BD players is also likely to come faster historically — other than DVDs.

I think that given the wealth of historical data we have, the thinking that BD is going to fail in the short term is unfounded.

It keeps good company and has beaten color CRTs and VCRs in market penetration growth at the 2 yr point. The next sales studies published will almost certainly show BD players have crossed the 2% market penetration — and it would have done that faster than plasma or LCD (even flat panel TVs combined). Blu-ray is here and it is very unlikely to fail — even if it doesn’t succeed as fast as DVDs did, it is almost certain it will overtake DVD.

Inevitably, BD players will also be replaced by something else, but for the next decade or so, it is very likely to steadily overtake DVDs.

But everyone should only buy into entertainment at the pace that they’re comfortable with. And if DVDs are good enough, hey, why should anyone persuade you otherwise. Until you’re ready to try BDs, DVDs are still pretty good.

Johanna,

Btw, 300 was an adaptation of Frank Miller’s work. As was SinCity. Both are available on blu-ray and they are amazing.

And yes, Neil Gaiman wrote a piece with a child as the main lead, but no it’s not a children’s fable. Coraline is listed on amazon.com in blu-ray even though it does not have a street date.

Sleeping Beauty’s remaster on blu-ray is also often held up as a study in restoration work of old historical work. It is available on blu-ray.

New animation on blu-ray also shows up well. Ratatouille, Wall-e, Cars, Surf’s Up, Happy Feet, Tinkerbell, Ice Age, Open Season, Chicken Little, Monster House, Kungfu Panda, Shrek, all of the recent animation released on DVDs also have a Blu-ray release, and they look amazing — I have every single one of them.

Older Catalogs such as Akira, Final Fantasy, (remention : Sleeping Beauty, Pinnochio) will continue to be released on Blu-ray.

So yes, the people driving adoption of blu-ray are the fans of The Dark Knight, Iron Man, the action blockbuster people are buying Blu-ray disks at around 20% vs 80% DVDs today, less than 3yrs into its life cycle.

The purpose of this post is really to point out blu-ray titles are not restricted to the action movies, animation and related titles are available and the option to watch them is available for those who wish to try.

There is porn on Blu-Ray, I am not sure how much…but it is happening. One of my local used CD/DVD shops has a bunch of Girls Gone Wild Blu-Rays as well. Oh for joy.

Well, I’m out of my depth there, but I did see japanese titles and they exist though not in large numbers. Digital Playground had a few releases that was discussed in forums, but I didn’t pay too much attention.

From I hear, the p*rn on blu-ray is minimal, but others also noted that the internet is where people go nowadays. Doubt if it will play much of a factor this time.

Google will help here.

I’m a fan of regular movies, anime and comic books, I do watch borderline content such as house of 10,000 corpses and Devil’s Rejects, if there’s a storyline to it, but I don’t pay too much attention to that, not that I have anything against people who do.

Since you like comics and animation, I recently watched Superman : Doomsday (covering the story leading to the Death of Superman event) on blu-ray, not the best drawn 2D animated movie, but the transfer appear flawless.

The extras were extensive and invaluable to any historian interested in the entire Superman culture even if the general public will ignore it.

You really should try and look at animation on Blu-ray.

Blu-ray hardware penetration will explode again this fall and estimates are over 80 Million Blu-ray discs will be sold in North American exceeding $1.5 Billion in sales and a chance of far more than that.

Blu-ray may get to over 20% of DVD revenues for 2009 so its at least at a sustainable stage.

But a lot of family friendly and comic based and animation titles absolutely look their best on Blu-ray.

Including Sleeping Beauty and the title that started this thread Pinocchio.

The restoration of that classic cell animation (hand drawn cell animation even upgrades better to HD even better than computer animation) is a work of art worth seeing again in the best consumer format thats available.

You are ridiculous. All of you. Whether or not Blu-Ray is the future or not has already been determined, it is. Will DVD’s still exist for a good 5 more years? Probably. Have you ever thought checking the sales of Blu-Ray players to see how much of a hot item they are right now? They have come down a lot in price and have made numerous upgrades that past models needed firmware updates for. Places like Best Buy (where I work in the Home Theater Department) can barely keep stock of Blu Ray Players on the shelf- even in this so-called Recession. You can no longer walk into a store and buy an old tube TV and get your awful standard 480i definition. They no longer make that type of TV, so sadly and unfortunately to anybody who has to buy a new TV, it will be a HDTV. Now, have you ever watched a standard DVD with a standard DVD player on a HDTV? It looks terrible. The format is not set for these types of TV’s and becomes all pixelated. And you know what happens then?? PEOPLE BUY BLU RAY PLAYERS AND UP-SCALING DVD PLAYERS (but due to the recent drop in Blu Ray Player costs the advantage of getting a blu ray player for a few more bucks is worth it and typically the route people choose). Now all I have to say is that it’s pretty sad for you to call yourself any kind of working professional reviewing ANYTHING of the technical sense (movies, etc) when you can’t even come to terms with the fact that DVD will die out and it’s only a matter of time before you will need to buy Blu Ray Player. And for your close-mindedness, it makes me laugh to think that people actually read your reviews and take you seriously when you . Get a Blu Ray Player and review Blu Ray movies— or be a thing of the past– just like the DVD.

Well, what price is consumer friendly? I remember buying VHS players for well over 200 dollars and my dvd player for about 200 dollars -> and that’s not even factoring in inflation.

This past christmas players were going for as low as 130-140 dollars as profile 1.1′s. I expect this coming christmas to be in the 90-110 range, but don’t expect to buy a tier 1 manufacturer’s model at this price.

After 4-5 years into DVD, we started seeing cyberhome dvd players at 60-80 dollars.

The problem here is that everyone expects and thinks that BD shouldn’t cost any more that DVD for some reason. There should be a premium on HD hardware and software. This only makes sense. Now, how much is reasonable really depends on your personal view on how valuable hidef is.

For me, having HDTV available on cable started me off enjoying the benefits of HD. Then when a true 1080p source of video was available in HD DVD, I bought and enjoyed it. Once Blu-ray has won 3 months in row in sales, I bought a PS3 and enjoyed Blu-ray.

All I can say is that for film immersion at home, nothing beats 1080p with good sound lossy 1.5 or truHD/lossless with good 5.1 or 7.1 speaker systems.

The movie experience is really different and if it is financially sound for you to buy into blu-ray and you have a decent sound system with a HDTV with maximized distance to size ratio, you will benefit immediately.

Paying 50-70 dollars more now (about 10 dollars a month) then paying 90-110 dollars later in november, is a drop in a bucket. The software is expensive, but you get samples for free, or can rent.

DVD’s don’t look horrible at all on hdtv if they have a good upscaler, but the difference between DVD and BD is night and day. If you had to compare the two, I would rather say DVD’s look horrible compared to BD on an HDTV _AT_ the right distance.

Anyways, I think that buying into things are a personal choice and you do it at your own discretion. In your case, it appears to partially business? driven? Probably could write it off income tax.

Also in regards to recordable options, remember that dvd’s can play on bd players. So whatever you author is playable on the player. Memorex BD player that was $139 last season played divx encoded films as well.

Recordable BD drive for the PC is running around 180-220 dollars right now (depending on sales) and once these get low enough in price, you’ll also probably need the space they offer.

Almost anything I make home video wise fits well on DVDr with the right codec. Not to mention BD players will play DVD’s that have BD file architecture. So you could author hi def media into a BD file structure and play it on the BD player. BD-9′s as these are called. Much like CD that have DVD information/files.

“(assuming they even make them for Macs)”

They do. But Blu-Ray recordable discs? *Epensive*. For the price of one BD-R, one can get 50 DVD-Rs. So, recordable Blu-Ray is currently less than affordable (though I remember when ten pack DVD-Rs would be bear $30.

Well, when you find a need to put 25 gb’s of data onto one disc because you _NEED_ it on one disc, i.e. hidef video. The price of BD-rs will be more reasonable.

Right now, I don’t see many reasons why you’d use a 25 gb solution vs 6 dvd-r, especially at the current costs. But in about 3-4 years when size of content goes up, I’m sure due to economies of scale that the price of BD-r’s will come down as well.

Happened with dvd-rs and it will happen again with bd-rs.

Oh yeah, I don’t disagree. I remember when a CD-R was sufficient to hold video projects for school. Now, it is easy to run out of 4 gb on a DVD-R. :)

But so far, yeah, I have not hit a point where I need a 25 gb disc. :)

The comparisons of Laserdisc penetration at 16 years and Blu Ray at two years is a bit disingenuous.

Laserdisc players were always a niche market with players at $500, and discs at $50 – $150.

Blu Ray is currently at $200 for players and $30 for disc. At these ‘fire sale’ prices they should be flying off the shelves, but they’re not, and it has the studios worried as they have forked over a lot in license fee’s to Sony.

2% of the market is an awful small segment.

As far as those that don’t understand being forced to repurchase titles. It’s exactly what the studios want, To spend $30 on a film we have already bought once (at $12). So yes the Blu Ray has a standard def copy of Pinochio, but gues what? I already bought Pinocchio 10 years ago.

Sailer, day and date releases take as much as 20 percent of the marketshare in regards to revenue obtained.

The 2% you’re talking about is households. A totally different number.

If you have the DVD, you don’t NEED to buy the new title; however, are you expecting to get the Hidef title at the same prices as a dvd? That doesn’t make sense either. It’s a new encode with more information.

Most films can be bought for less than 30 dollars on sale and many are already priced at retailers a lot lower than that.

And lastly, if you don’t want to own, you can always rent. Netflix, blockbuster online, etc.

However, I do agree that prices have fallen a lot faster than I had anticipated and as Johanna mentioned, part of it is due to the economy. I wouldn’t necessarily refer to it as a “fire sale.”

People who are commenting on the 2% market penetration don’t realize that the 1.7% at yr2 that Blu-ray now has outpaced even VHS and CD and telephones, color CRTs, toasters, washing machines, and practically anything historical record keeping can throw up.

If data and statistics is not enough to convince people that blu-ray is not going away, then how about keeping on-topic with this site?

This site is about comics and animation. Besides the blu-ray disk Superman : Doomsday which I can assure everyone looks incredible on blu-ray, in spite of the 2d comics-style animation, lets not ignore the Watchmen : Comics release last week. That title generated a 29 : 71 sales ratio against DVD!

Watchmen may not be a general mass market release, but it is an seminal work in the field of comics that is cannot be ignored by people who follow the field.

And the sales data is telling us that for every 10 people who bought a copy of the Watchmen disk, about 3 of them bought it on blu-ray, 7 on DVD.

People, it’s the Watchmen! You can’t ignore it.

What does this tell us about market penetration of Blu-ray among people who support comics?

Hi Johanna,

Regarding the cost to buy a Blu-ray player: if you’re now going out and buying titles like Pinocchio on DVD, you’ll end up spending more on about 10 DVDs than you would picking up a Blu-ray player. So, personally, I’d take the “free” Blu-rays and they’ll pay for themselves in no time! Plus, a few years from now you’ll be glad that you have the better audiovisual quality versions sitting on the shelf when you do get an HDTV. I guess the only wildcard is if Blu-ray doesn’t exist in a few years, but I don’t see that happening.

Wow so many people trying to convince a comic book reviewer, who does movie reviews on the side. That she needs to upgrade.

If this site was called Movies Worth Viewing, then perhaps I could understand the zeal. It isn’t though, and if you’re really coming here for DVD reviews than damn Johanna and KC are better writers than even *I* thought they were.

I personally would like to hear more about the DVD release, as the Blu Ray is of no interest to me…. and 98% of the general public.

We have reached the Youtube era, where convenient and free rule the day. Studios are going to have to figure out a new business model to make money, and be happy with what ‘little’ (Billions) they make.

Blu ray make look great, have wonderful features, and games, but most people don’t care too much about that.

HDTV is JUST NOW making headway into the market and only because it’s being forced onto the general public, and it’s been around for over 25 years.

If video quality was that important to most people we would have made the digital switch to Hi-Def years ago.

Most people still don’t even know what Blu Ray is (nor care).

My bigger issue with the Pinocchio release is that none of the “I’m No Fool” or Figaro shorts were included, and as one of Disney’s ‘A’ titles, I found the bonus features a little on the light side (I’m am one of the few that LOVES the bonus content) The CAV Laser Disc (wich I own) had a better assortment of extra’s including a ‘complete’ CD soundtrack.

Johanna, you’re right about that demographic, but that same demographic is what sales at multiple levels of the industry, including box office.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=worldwide&view=releasedate&p=.htm

Here’s a link to the last 20 years of #1 movie worldwide box office and you’ll see that most of them fit in this “demographic”.

So naturally, it would seem skewed that way, as the money comes in this way as well. One needs to keep that in mind when trying to make demographic generalizations about BD adoption.

Gamer’s tend not too be big DVD buyers. They will spend $60 on a game, but not $30 for a Blu Ray title. Sony was able to pad the numbers by bundling the Blu Ray drive with every PS3, but it hasn’t been enough to help Blu Ray for the long term.

As far a movie demo’s, Yes they are all made for 14 year old boy’s, surprise surprise, that’s why the industry is shocked when Gran Torino became the #1 film, or that Titanic is the #1 box office title ever…

(Here’s a hint Hollywood…. they appeal to a larger audience…)

Johanna,

The ratio of that comics and superhero demographics does happen to be the people spearheading the adoption of new technology like blu-ray.

This is why Irom Man and The Dark Knight release weeks saw large spikes. Wonder Woman btw, did a 14%, from that, I’d like to think women comics fans are also buying blu-ray disks too.

However, people are still buying other genres. Australia and Madagascar 2 did about 12%.

So far, it’s the Beverly Hills Chihuahua genres that’s doing badly.

But the point still stands that historically, the best selling movies on dvd and the cinemas tend to be action blockbuster, and superhero comic books adaptations do extremly well.

DC Comics and Marvel have a lot invested in continuing the shiny disk business, and so far, their creations are the ones making blu-ray a success. It’s fair to say that without DC and Marvel, there’d be no Dark Knight, no Iron Man, no X-Men, no Spiderman and likely, no Blu-ray.

The conclusion is that the demographics of comic book fans are the ones supporting blu-ray more than anyone else — they buy blu-rays in the millions : The Dark Knight on Blu-ray has sold over 2 million disks so far.

The analogy for blu-ray vs DVD is that of a 2Mpel camera vs a VGA camera. Instinctively, we understand that there are differences between taking pictures on both cameras.

In the case of animation, a side by side comparison of the two pictures should be pretty obvious which one is better. The question is whether people are willing to pay more for it. The answer for the comic book fans is clear : more and more are saying yes every month.

That 29% for Watchmen is a record.

I am curious what Alan Morre would say if he could watch his creation on a high definition screen? Would he decry the ‘too much detail’ and smash the hdtv at the abomination of his work? :)

Hey Johanna,

I got an idea for you. Create a Paypal donation button for your Blu-ray player fund. All your detractors and Blu-ray fanatics will donate. I bet you can easily get the fund to buy a new Blu-ray player.

fwiw, Pinocchio was the best seller that release week on both the DVD and blu-ray charts. The blu-ray version of Pinocchio sales ratio against DVD was 15 : 85.

The average for the top 20 titles was a 12 : 88. The highest ratio for blu-ray was The Dark Knight at 34 : 66.

The lowest were Beverly Hills Chihuahua and High School Musical 3 which both came in at 3%.

The rest of the data are available at homemediamagazine web site

FYI First week sales up for this title.

The Blu-ray version did 15% of first week unit sales and even higher revenue share as the Blu-ray version was priced higher.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/research/pinocchio-tops-sales-charts-15061

“Pinocchio Tops Sales Charts”

“A special 70th anniversary edition of animated classic Pinocchio topped the national home video sales charts the week ended March 15, buoyed in part by surprisingly strong Blu-ray Disc sales.

Of the Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment release�s total sales, 15% were in the high-definition format, a high number for a family title � and an indication that Blu-ray Disc may be moving beyond the early adopter stage, which is dominated by young adult males.

Pinocchio debuted at No. 1 on both the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, which tracks DVD and Blu-ray Disc sales combined, as well as Nielsen�s Blu-ray Disc sales chart.”

If Role Models sold over 2,000,000, then Pinocchio had total sales over 2000000* 100 / 78.01 = 2,563,773. Let us just say 2,564,000 units.

Then the Pinocchio Blu-ray would have sold at least 2564000 * 0.15 = 384,600 units for the first week

The demographics was something armchair analysts commented on and is accepted as gospel. Each year, the lead movies that pushed the envelope was comics / superhero / action based. In 2007, it was 300, Casino Royale. In 2008 it was Iron Man and The Dark Knight.

However, Pinochio is the first DVD chart topper that broke that assumption. Earlier, Snow White pulled in a 9% on BD, which was a surprise to many, but Pinocchio at 15% is even a bigger surprise.

I think what we’re seeing is that the serious movie collectors interested in genres like animation history are already migrating into the highdef collecting mode.

On another noteworthy point, Australia, which also breaks the demographics assumption about young males, did a respectable 10%, and 11% last week. The chance of large numbers of young males watching Australia in droves is about as likely as catching Justin Timberlake viewing Bridges of Madison County.

This tells me that while the comics fans might have led the blu-ray adoption till this year, the other traditional segments required for mass adoption are already following, the last laggard are the BVH Chihuahua type fans, which I suspect is 12-18 months behind, but inevitably, will join as well.

typo on above. I meant Sleeping Beauty and typed Snow White, which btw, I always held in higher esteem than SB. but I digress.

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I would just like to say that as a person who just barely bought my Blu Ray player I can say I agree with both sides of the argument. See I am in the under 30 tech savvy comic book reading video game playing sci-fi crowd, and *I* still waited until July 2009 to buy into Blu Ray, know why? Not just cost which was a factor but *available titles* believe it or not.

Oh sure I like The Dark Knight and Iron Man as much as the next guy, but not my top 10 favorite movies of all time are Pleasantville, Mallrats, Ghost World, Gremlins, X-Men 2, Pirates of the Caribbean; Dead Man’s Chest, A Nightmare on Elm Street (original), Star Wars, Super Troopers, and The Animal. Out of my top 10 list of movies, only 4, JUST FOUR are currently on Blu Ray.

I still bought a player but only after the format war settled and only once I could get a player at Wal-mart for $100 which I just barely could. I also currently own 11 BR titles TOTAL two are trilogy’s (pirates/X-men) so that’s not a big variety. Blu Ray is the future I believe that with all my heart just like I believe HD is the future also but it is NOT the now it is here sure but it is a LONG way from true mass market. So Pinochio sold a lot of copies, yeah so what us comic book geeks who watch sci-fi movies, etc, we still watch classic Disney cartoons too, the MAJORITY OF US, so that movie like ALL Disney/Pixar movies, falls in line with *our* demographic anyways. That is not a sign of mass market anything just a sign that nerds watch cartoons.

Blu Ray needs more variety before going true mass market. just go to any retailer and check out their selection of movies, if they have Blu Rays they mostly have new releases/current titles and very little of anything else. It’s going to be easily a year or more before enough variety of movies, not just cheap enough players, and enough HDTV’s also are out there. Remember you *need* an HDTV to get anything out of Blu Ray otherwise your just buying an over priced DVD anyways. HDTV penetration last time I checked, which was a couple months ago, was like 35% total homes, that’s not mass market yet either.

Also it’s not fair to count PS3 sales as Blu Ray player sales, how many of those PS3′s are ACTUALLY hooked up to HDTV’s and how many of those are used to watch movies? No body knows that answer and it’s not likely anyone ever will.

Blu Ray is still MORE than a year away from true mass market penetration so by all means if you do not have an HDTV and don’t want one any time soon, DVD is the BEST your gonna get, Blu Ray isn’t worth diddly without that extra picture quality which you do need a large enough tv to see, trust me I have a tiny 32″ set and while *I* see the improvement in quality, too many people I have shown even the best Blu Rays to don’t really see that much of a difference, granted those are the same people who were slow to go DVD cuz vhs looked “good enough” to them and that’s the problem *those* people won’t go Blu until they have to, many of them still cling to their VCR’s and haven’t gone DVD yet.

Blu Ray is the future true, but it’s not fully arrived just yet.

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